EDA of Different Rates
Luke Benz
7/25/2020
Red and Yellow Cards
Have played around w/ \(k-\)game rolling averages of red and yellow cards per game with various values of \(k\) (like 50, 100, 200). Open question to me is what is best value of \(k\) to use here. (Note these are right windowed so average for first 100 games gets assigned to the point \(x\) = 100).
- Germany 1 + 2, Portugese Liga, Spain (Home YC up, Away YC down)
- Spain 1 (Away YC down)
- England 1 + 2, Italy 1 + 2 (Cards down in general)
- Sweden, Norway (Cards up in general)
Open Questions/Notes:
- How do we best attribute if rate is going up due to no fans vs continuing a trend of going as it had been before?
- Should these rolling averages include games on both sides of the restart line?
- Optimal \(k\) for rolling averages?
- Somewhere in this time period VAR was adopted by different leagues which I believe allows red cards to be reviewed (and non-red card plays to be reviewed for a red card)
Goals
Same as above w/ home and away goals.
Notes and Observations:
- German Bundesliga first time home goals per game ever \(\leq\) away goals per game during this time period.
- Bundeliga 2. scoring up all around
- Home GPG Down a lot in Austria. Similar trend in Spain 1.
- Portugal home GPG up and Away GPG down after being at home GPG at “record” low for the time period
- Sharp home GPG drop in Greece. This had been country amongst this group w/ largest home field avantage (see https://github.com/lbenz730/soccer_hfa/blob/master/simulation_figures/pre_covid_hfa.png)
- Scoring down in Sweden, up in Norway and Italy 1
- Widening of the gap in Switzerland and Italy 2 (two of the leagues w/ lowest pre-covid HFA)
Fouls
Notes and Obervations:
- A lot of these foul numbers are bad for smaller leagues. Either missing first few seasons or just 0 for all games which we know can’t be the case. If we use fouls/game, we probably we either remove games where both home team and away team commit 0 fouls, or we just focus on the big leagues.
- German Bundesliga home fouls/game up compared to recent trends but hard to say if this is not some reversion to where it usually is. I’d say less likely given what we see in terms of YC/game. Similar trend in Italy.
- England has seen maybe slight uptick in fouls for home team but this goes back to the question of is this less HFA or is is continution of seemingly longer recent trend.
- Spain, maybe fouls down a little across the board.
- Austria away fouls/game down.
